The End of Geopolitics?

The new Great Game

In the global arena, analysts meticulously dissect the escalating tensions between the Western sphere, helmed by the United States, and an emergent coalition of Eurasian powers led by the People’s Republic of China. This struggle encompasses not just access to raw materials and market dominance but also the quest for paramount prestige and influence among global powers.

Diverse viewpoints prevail among analysts, ranging from the belief in an imminent collapse of China and Russia with the United States emerging as the unrivaled 21st-century powerhouse, to the forecast of a multipolar world where China and India ascend as dominant forces. However, these discussions overlook a looming, all-encompassing reality—the impending spectre of global ecological collapse.

While the debate rages on GDP, military prowess, and the expansiveness of competing trade networks, the impending collapse of ecosystems remains relegated to the sidelines. This oversight pushes our world ever closer to the brink of environmental catastrophe.

A convergence of crises

Consider the alarming statistics—nearly a third of the world’s freshwater reservoirs and soils lie ravaged, while our relentless reliance on fossil-fuel-based fertilizers continues to exacerbate the perils of climate change. Even a concerted effort to curtail emissions will fail to halt the climate crisis due to the cumulative effects of past environmental neglect.

The ramifications of these actions are dire, foretelling the transformation of regions into inhospitable landscapes due to soaring temperatures. The response to such environmental upheaval necessitates drastic adaptations, such as the creation of enclosed cities, mass migrations, or the dire descent into destitution for those incapable of adapting.

Take, for instance, the Middle East—a region perpetually embroiled in conflict. Yet, the discourse around its geopolitical complexities might soon wane as soaring temperatures render vast swathes of it uninhabitable.

The most pressing challenge looms over Asia, where the impending disappearance of Himalayan glaciers threatens the very lifelines of billions dependent on rivers like the Ganges and the Yangtze.

Even Europe isn’t exempt from these impending cataclysms. Southern countries could potentially transform into arid deserts, necessitating widespread migration and a radical reshaping of their agricultural landscapes. Paradoxically, northern Europe might experience more severe winters due to the shifting climatic currents.

A projected global temperature rise of two to three degrees Celsius is set to exponentially escalate the cost of maintaining civilization, leading to reduced disposable incomes and constrained economies. The pursuit of global dominance amidst this crisis becomes an economically prohibitive endeavor.

As conflicts intensify over dwindling resources, the global landscape might witness a trend toward autarky or the creation of heightened class disparities, further marginalizing vulnerable populations. Yet, vying for global hegemony amid such existential crises would amount to a fool’s errand.

Survival in the face of these challenges demands a shift in approach—toward conservation, self-sufficiency, and the widespread equipping of populations with indispensable survival skills. The foreseeable future portends economic stagnation, possibly mirroring historic collapses if political and social systems fail to adapt to the looming cataclysms.

Another way is there

Ideally, transcending this crisis necessitates a paradigm shift—a leadership that prioritizes life over unbridled growth, human welfare over rampant consumerism, and equitable access to life’s necessities for all. Yet, such a profound alteration in trajectory mandates leaders and ideologies radically different from our current trajectory. We would need a shift towards fulfilling the Three Criteria – a global ecological budget ceiling, a shift to a fully circular economy and a global income floor for the Earth’s poor.

Ultimately, the fixation on the US-China power struggle proves futile when juxtaposed against the impending convergence of crises. It mirrors the futility of ancient empires squabbling in the lead-up to the Bronze Age collapse.


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